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智能手机时代的生产率奇迹 Miracles of productivity hidden in t

更新于2015年09月23日 来源于网络 作者jiji

Miracles of productivity hidden in the modern home
I can tap my smartphone and a cab will arrive almost immediately. Another tap will tell me the latest news, value my share portfolio or give me route directions to my next meeting. I can instantly find the time of a train to Margate, the weather in Majorca, download a rail ticket and receive a boarding pass for my flight. As a result, I do not need to stand on a street corner vainly trying to hail a taxi to the theatre, lose myself in London streets, miss my train or queue at a check-in desk. I can chat to friends, or arrange a loan, while appearing to pay attention to a dull meeting.

我只需轻触自己的智能手机,就可以几乎立刻招来一辆出租车。再轻触一下,它还可以告诉我最新新闻,让我查看自己的股票投资组合,或者告诉我去往下一个会议的路线。我可以立刻找到开往马尔盖特(Margate)的火车时刻表,了解马略卡岛(Majorca)的天气,下载一张火车票或者收到航班的登机牌。这样一来,我就不需要站在街角,徒劳地试图招停一辆出租车去剧院;不会让自己在伦敦街头迷路;不会错过火车,也不需要在机场柜台排队等候办理登记手续。我可以在貌似专心参加一场枯燥会议的时候与朋友聊天,甚至安排一笔贷款。

The changes that have occurred in the past decade have, from an economic perspective, increased at virtually no cost the efficiency of household production. Trying to account for this kind of development is the considerable challenge that George Osborne, the chancellor of the exchequer, has given Sir Charles Bean, former deputy governor of the Bank of England, in asking him to review how the UK’s official statistics are compiled.

从经济学视角看,这些发生在过去10年的变化,几乎在没有任何成本的情况下提高了家庭生产的效率。尝试统计这种发展趋势是英国财政大臣乔治?奥斯本(George Osborne)向英国央行(BoE)前副行长查尔斯?毕恩爵士(Sir Charles Bean)提出的巨大挑战,毕恩被要求审议英国官方统计是如何编制的。

The data framework within which economic analysis is conducted is largely the product of the second world war. In the 1930s American economist Simon Kuznets began to elaborate a system of national accounts. That work was given impetus when the war led governments to take control of important sectors of economic activity. It was soon realised that this required far better data than had previously existed, which in turn raised the challenge of how best to structure such information.

用于经济分析的数据框架基本上是二战的产物。上世纪30年代,美国经济学家西蒙?库兹涅茨(Simon Kuznets)开始创建国民核算体系。当战争导致政府控制经济活动的重要领域时,这项工作被赋予了动力。人们很快就意识到,这需要比先前好得多的数据,进而带来了该如何最好地构建此类信息的挑战。

The framework of national accounts constructed then, and the indices and other tools derived from it, have been the basis of data collection by statistical agencies around the world ever since. The UN has provided a forum for international standardisation. And yet the wartime origins of the processes linger into current practice. Output is essentially a matter of quantities — you needed to know the volume of steel produced, the number of guns, the rate at which tanks roll off the assembly line. We still use gross national product as our primary measure because when you are facing deadly foes it is gross, not net, output that will enable you to repel them. In desperate times, you do not worry about wear and tear.

后来所构建的国民核算框架以及从中衍生出的指数和其他工具,从那以后就成了世界各地统计机构数据收集的基础。联合国为国际标准化提供了一个论坛。然而,此类流程的战争年代起源延续至当前的实践。产出在本质上是一个量的问题——你需要知道钢产量的吨数、枪炮的数量以及坦克开下生产线的速度。我们仍使用国民生产总值(GNP)作为我们的主要衡量指标,因为当你面临致命的敌人时,总产出(而非净产出)才能让你击退他们。在危急时刻,你不会为损耗操心。

Household production — women’s work as homemakers — did not have much of a look-in; that was not the front line against fascism. The joke about the man who reduced national income by marrying his housekeeper, so that a market transaction became part of household production, was once a mandatory part of every introductory course on national income accounting but has succumbed to political correctness. (In fact, the introductory courses on national income accounting have gone as well, because no one much wants to teach them, which is one reason why Sir Charles’ review is necessary.)

家庭生产——女性作为家庭主妇的工作——没有太多关注;那不是与法西斯作战的前线。关于一个与管家结婚(从而使市场交易变成家庭生产的一部分)的男人减少了国民收入的笑话,曾经是国民收入核算入门课程的必修部分,但已经屈从于“政治正确”的时代潮流。(实际上,国民收入核算的入门课程已经没有了,因为没人想教这些,这也是毕恩爵士的审议确实必要的一个原因。)

Technological advance has always enhanced household as well as business efficiency. Our domestic productivity has benefited from washing machines, vacuum cleaners and central heating, and before that from electric light and automobiles. But at least these things were partially accounted for: from an economic perspective a car is a faster and cheaper horse. Statisticians in principle incorporated these improvements in the efficiency of consumer goods into their measurement of productivity, though in practice they did not try very hard.

古往今来,技术进步始终提升家庭和企业的效率。我们的家庭生产率受益于洗衣机、吸尘器和中央供暖系统,而在这之前则受益于电灯和汽车。但是这些东西至少在一定程度上得到了统计:从经济学角度看,一辆汽车是一匹跑得更快而且更便宜的马。统计人员原则上将这些消费品效率的提升纳入了他们对生产率的衡量,尽管在实践中他们并未很努力地这样做。

But the technological advances of the past decade seem to have increased the efficiency of households, rather than the efficiency of businesses, to an unusual extent. An ereader in the pocket replaces a roomful of books, and all the world’s music is streamed to my computer. We look at aggregate statistics and worry about the slowdown in growth and productivity. But the evidence of our eyes seems to tell a different story.

但过去10年的技术进步似乎将家庭(而非企业)的效率提高到了一个不同寻常的高度。一个装在口袋里的电子书阅读器可以取代一屋子的书,而全世界的音乐都可以下载到我的电脑里。我们盯着统计总额,担心增长和生产率放缓。但我们的耳闻目睹似乎讲述了一个不同的故事。
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